It is reported on January 17 that China's soybean imports have lagged far behind the same period in previous years, which has exacerbated the worries of American farmers. China's soybean imports in the first two weeks of this year fell by about 37% compared with the same period last year, according to commodity data statistics and Clipper Data, a consultancy. Smith Mill, director of ClipperData Agricultural Market Research, said that although the sample size represented by the data for several weeks was small, the downward trend was very worrying under the current market environment and trade tensions.
China's African swine plague has inhibited the import demand for soybean meal, which has made the trade differences between China and the United States more complicated, the report said. Declining car sales, weak manufacturing data, and declining soybean imports are increasingly indicative of China's slowing economic growth.
ClipperData understands that China purchased up to 5 million tons of U.S. soybeans last December as trade negotiations between the two countries proceeded. But in the company's view, this is a sincere gesture by the Chinese side. The imported soybeans will be used for national grain reserves. These transactions do not reflect China's real import demand. As the world's largest soybean consumer, the decline in China's soybean imports is an important signal of the decline in market demand. ClipperData expects that pork consumption in China will continue to decline in the first quarter of this year and will continue to affect soybean meal demand, which may continue into the second quarter. The decline in market demand may lead to more intense competition among soybean producers, and may lead to further declines in soybean prices on the current basis.
