Compared with the shrimp production in 2014, the production in 2015 dropped 10% because of the price fall. In the first nine moths of 2015, the import quantity increased a little, but the import growth rate in EU and Japan dropped. On the contrary, Asia and Middle East raised their import with the dropping price.
Supply
Because of the farming diseases and other problems, the mariculture production of China, India, Ecuador and Vietnam all decreased. To cut the loss or avoid the disease, many farmers reduced the farming density. The estimated farmed shrimp production in 2015 was about 2 million metric tonnes.
In Vietnam, farmers shift to black tiger shrimp because of the unbalanced Vannamei Shrimp market supply and demand. Its decrease of export and increase of import also proved the production drop of farming shrimp in Vietnam.
In India, farming production was severely hit because of the turbulent market price and bad weather, decreasing about 10%-20%. The situation was no better than that in India. The drop of shrimp feed demand and decrease of export reflected the depression of its shrimp market.
But there was exception in depressing Asia, Thailand, whose production increased 260, 000 tonnes from 2012 to 2015. The surge trend was expected to continue with 10% more increase in 2016.
In Ecuador, farmers started to reduce farming density to avoid disease outbreak in September, 2015. The situation was better in Mexico whose production was back to 80, 000-85, 000 tonnes, compare with the 70, 000 tonnes in 2014.
Overall, Asian raw material price up in December, 2015 caused the low mariculture production, the trend seeming to continue in 2016.
In 2015, Argentina shrimp catch reached record high 0f 1.4 million metric tonnes, 10% more than the catch in 2014. But with the impact of US dollars and Chinese economy crisis, the price downturn went through the whole year of 2015. And the negative trend seemed to expand into 2016 with a high stock and catches of marine products.
Import and Export Tendency
Although the international business price tended to be weak, compared with the same period in 2014, the import was still depressing in first nine months in 2015. In important market, there was a small increase that America increased only 2.1%, while EU dropped 1.6%(first eight months of 2015) and Japan dropped 3.4%. Australian import decreased sharply as much as 20%. But there was high import in Korea(11.6%), China(24%), Taiwan(11%) and Canada(22%). Frozen shrimp still had a big market in Vietnam whose import doubled.
Compared with the export amount in 2014, the two big shrimp export countries, India and Ecuador, all enhanced its export in first nine months in 2015, respectively 10% more (280, 000 tonnes) and 15% more (257, 000 tonnes). But the export value decreased because of the low price.
Besides its important export countries, China, America, Vietnam, Japan and EU, India expanded its export into Kuwait, Qatar, Egypt, other Middle East countries, also Sri Lanka and Maldives. As for Ecuador, Vietnam was its largest export market, followed by China, America, EU and Korea. Surprisingly, Thailand, the non-traditional export country, exported 3.4% more shrimp products to the world in the first nine months of 2015, mainly shrimp by-products. In America and Japan, 63% and 66% pre-produced shrimp products were from Thailand, while China export dropped 22%. At the same time, Vietnam export was expected up to 175, 000 to 180, 000 tonnes, decreasing a little compared with that in the same period in 2014.
Japan
In the mid-2015, the retail industry and catering industry all boosted their demand towards shrimp because of the decreased price. Japanese super market would carry out sales promotion in July, August and December. Catering industry had an increased demand for big size white-leg shrimp, black tiger shrimp and marine-catched shrimp because of the low stock. In December 2015, the Indian export price for 16-20 black tiger shrimp was 10.5 US dollars/kg, 1 dollar less than that of the same period in previsous years.
Although the price dropped, the import production in first nine months of 2015 increased 3.3%, compared with that in the same period in 2014. Pre-produced shrimp product and Sushi shrimp import amount jumped as much as 21%. The tendency continued to October 2015. Thailand and Vietnam both were the important supplier of Japanese pre-produced shrimp product.
U.S.A.
Because of the unsteady price, American shrimp market was in turbulent situation all the time. Local distribution channel and importer storage both had a high stock while Mexico also had stock of wild brown shrimp.
In the first nine months of 2015, American shrimp import value dropped 18.4% compared with that of the same period in 2014, but the import quantity increased 2.1%. In its important import countries, India, Indonesia and Thailand all boosted their supply while Ecuador and Vietnam decreased that.
EU
In 2015，EU’s shrimp demand was still weak while its import price was much lower. The import decreased 1.6% in first eight months of 2015, compared with that in the same period of 2014. There was supply increase and drop in the market that Ecuador, Argentina and Vietnam increased the supply while Greenland and India decreased.
Compared with the same period in 2014, Spain import was 8% up, France 23.7% up, but England 6% down, Netherland 4.4% down and Italy 9.6% down.
As for the import in countries which were not the member of EU, Switzerland and Norway dropped 10.5% and 1.3% respectively. Compared with that in 2014, Russia imported only 14, 598 tonnes, 60% less in the first nine months in 2015. The main reason was Russian food import embargo.
Terrorist attack was part reason of the shrimp export price drop in European market in November and December. The strong US dollars, especially in the beginning of December, was favorable to the market with a dollar quotation, such as Ecuador, India, and Indonesia. As a result of high price for big size shrimp, the market demand was mainly focused on middle and small size shrimp, but the market demand was still depressing after the Spring Festival.
Asian and other markets
The decreased price spurred the import demand in many Asian markets. In the first nine months of 2015, the import all increased in China, Taiwan, Vietnam and Korea. Besides, at the same time, there was also import surge in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Egypt and other Middle East countries.
Vietnam was still the main export country of Asia and Latin America. Based on the business statistics of supply side, Vietnam imported 73, 000 more tonnes(150, 000 total) frozen shrimp in first nine months of 2015, compared with that in the same period of 2014. Vietnam became the top import country of frozen shrimp. Some of the shrimp would be exported to China through border distribution, but Chinese statistics regarding this was only 643 tonnes. In Southeast Asia, shrimp price increased sharply. For example, Malaysia fresh shrimp price almost doubled in 2015, and its supply continued to drop. Chinese shrimp price was much higher than global price. As a result, many farmers were inclined to sold the shrimp directly to consumption market instead of processing factories.
Outlook in 2016
Overall, the price would go up because of the increasing demand in Southeast Asia. In Asian shrimp origin country, the price already started to rebound. With all these positive signs plus the demand increase in America and Japan in late 2015, the 2016 shrimp market would take a turn for the better.
