“Larger berry size, young vineyards producing more than normal, and diversion of volume from Mexico to the U.S. are the likely explanations of the variance,” said John Pandol, director of special projects for Pandol Brothers and chairman of the grape division of the Nogales-based Fresh Produce Association of the Americas.
Despite the extra 15 or 20 percent of volume, distributors report an orderly market. Like the 2015 season, over 50 percent of the volume is harvested in a three-week period, and supermarket promotions were in place at the proper times.
“Nothing frightens a seller more than talk of a short crop”, said John Pandol. “The distributors want to set up ads and programs; growers resist because they feel ads are unnecessary at the lower volume. Distributors respond by saying something like ‘14 million grapes won’t sell themselves.’ It seems that this year we created the necessary demand at key times.”
Currently, Pandol puts revised crop estimates for Sonora in the 16 to 18 million box range, and he anticipates a smooth transition to Central California.
