Over the last decade, the growth of Poland's apple production has had no match in any other EU country, as reported to "Rzeczpospolita" by Mariusz Dziwulski, economist at BNP BGZ Paribas Bank.
As a result of this, in 2015, Poland accounted for nearly one third of all apples produced in the EU, which gave the country a leadership position. This year, this share may again increase, as the apple harvest will be a record high one. The Central Statistical Office (GUS) believes it will reach 3.5 million tonnes, about 10 percent more than in the previous year and almost 70 percent more than that of 2005.
This year's harvest will not be enough for Poland to go up in the world ranking; however, as noted by Mariusz Dziwulski, the distance that separates Poland from the second in the ranking (the United States) is getting smaller every year (the first place in the production of apples worldwide is for China).
The Association of Fruit Growers has admitted that the high volume of apples this year will likely mean big trouble.
"If we hadn't been affected by the Russian embargo since August 2014 and were annually shipping 1 million tonnes of apples there, we would not have problems with the fruit's marketing," admits Miroslaw Maliszewski, president of the Association of Polish Fruit-Growers. "In the meantime, we have been trying to access alternative markets, but these are unable to make up for the loss of Russia," he added.
Yet, in 2013, apples were exported to 55 countries - according to Eurostat, while in 2015 this figure stood already at 81. More and more Polish apples are hitting new markets, including Vietnam, Egypt and Algeria.
"However, in terms of volume, exports of Polish apples in 2015 fell by 27.8 percent compared with 2013," affirms Jakub Olipra, economist at Credit Agricole Bank Poland.
He added that Polish apple exporters seek to circumvent the Russian embargo mainly through exports to Belarus, from where they are then re-exported to Russia. In the period between 2013 and 2015, the export of Polish apples to Belarus increased by 77.1 percent and Belarus became the largest importer of Polish apples.
"The increase in exports of apples to Belarus, however, is only less than 20 percent of what was exported to Russia in 2013," explains Olipra.
Soon the first shipments of Polish apples should go to China, but Miroslaw Maliszewski admits that it will not be easy to gain this market, and not just because China produces most of these fruits in the world, but also because of high transport costs and complicated procedures.
"In connection with the possibility of entering the Chinese market, certifications were initially requested for 900 orchards in Poland. However, some resigned, with reasons including the lack of clarity in the procedures," explains Miroslaw Maliszewski. "It will be good if by the middle of next year, until the end of the current season, we can export to China some 20 to 30 thousand tonnes of apples," he added.
Grzegorz Rykaczewski, an analyst of the agro-food sector at Bank Zachodni WBK, notes that new markets do not facilitate the domination of Polish Idared varieties, which were eagerly demanded by Russians, but which don't enjoy such popularity in other markets.
"Switching to different varieties, on the one hand, requires time, and on the other, it entails high costs, which given the persistently low prices may prove challenging for producers," notes the expert from BZ WBK.
Furthermore, as noted by Grzegorz Rykaczewski, the supply of apples in Poland has increased compared to last year. According to estimates by the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA), at the beginning of July there were still 59 thousand tonnes of apples from the 2015 harvest in stock. This is as much as 97 percent more than a year earlier. The main variety in storage is the Idared.
In these circumstances, it is possible that apple prices will fall even more. "In the coming months, these may fall by up to 50 percent compared to 2015," estimates Jakub Olipra. "In July, the average price was approximately 40 percent lower than last year," he added.
