“We have run different scenarios, and I could say that 180 MMT is the result of a conservative one”, Mr. Urriza opines in dialogue with www.eFarmNewsAr.com. “This is a prospective work assuming that this volume of grain will not affect global commodities prices”, the official clarifies.
From 2003 to 2015, Argentine harvest passed from 70 to 122 MMT, and in the following two years (until the 2016/17 season) it reached 130 MMT. To grow to 180 MMT in 2028, the grain production should grow at an average 5% annual rate, to add 50 million metric tons. “We think growing at a 5% annual rate is something logic”, the interviewed opines. “But drivers of this growth are the key for the prospective. We must know how many fertilizers necessary to reach this volume; what kind of seeds and traits the farmers need; the use of cover crops, etcetera, etcetera, and, of course, what kind of policies will contribute to reaching this goal”, explain.
The Ag-Industry team in charge to the report drawn up different scenarios. One of them continuing the export tax scheme prior to December 2015 (23% for wheat; 20% for corn and 35% for soybean, over FOB prices), other with the new scheme (11% for both corn and wheat and 28% for soybean) and assuming a semi-intensive crop rotation.
“We are discussing our model with private NGO’s, like Maizar (corn chain association), Argentrigo (wheat chain), Acsoja (soybean chain), Asagir (sunflower chain), Aapresid (no-till farmers) and Aacrea (top leading producers). We are assuming that Argentine will produce so much soybean as it can but in a 50/50 crop rotation between this crop and grasses (wheat and corn), but the double crop wheat-soybean will have a relevant incidence to reach a 180 MMT harvest”, Urriza added.
“It’s a great initiative but, first we should know how this volume of grain will impact in global prices and, second, why we are not thinking how to transform this grain in added value products in our country”.
