In all countries of the NEPG, the actual stocks of consumption potatoes are lower than last year, and they’re also lower than the five-year average. The total harvest of 2018 in the five NEPG countries was 17.8% lower than in the previous year. There were also various quality problems during the period when potatoes were harvested from the fields, and subsequently in various storages. Nearly all risky batches have now been processed, and the remainder of the potatoes in storage is generally of good quality, although there are still some decaying batches. It’s therefore important to stay alert.
Seed time critical
The NEPG expects that the current high price levels will last through this winter and next spring. However, seed times could change the mood on the market. A late seed time in Northwestern Europe could boost the market situation even more, because stocks are low and processors have to keep using the old harvest longer. A very early spring, on the other hand, could put pressure on the high price levels. Right now, €30 per tonne appears to be the minimum price on the free market on the continent.
Shortage of seed potatoes
On the continent the NEPG expects a shortage of seed potatoes, mostly in the processing varieties. Without a signed contract it could become very difficult for individual growers to receive seed potatoes. Despite the higher contract prices offered by the processing industry, the area for 2019 can’t expand much when not enough seed potatoes are available. More dual-purpose varieties of the fresh table market and the starch industry could be used for processing, which was also the case in the past few months, to compensate for the low yields of this harvest. The export towards Southern and Eastern Europe is dynamic, mostly from France. The high price levels are an additional handicap for overseas destinations.
Dry weather continues to be a point of attention
Last year, the weather was dry and hot during the growing season, and a lot of growers had to irrigate their fields. For three years in a row, the groundwater level in all NEPG countries was lower than the average of the past ten years. If there’s insufficient rain and snow in the next two months, the necessary water reserves in various countries will be insufficient for the next growing season.
Contract prices mainland NEPG 2019/20
Contract prices have risen in all countries, mostly by between 10 and 30% (depending on variety and delivery period), but the production costs, such as for seed potatoes, fertiliser, pesticides and energy, have also risen proportionally.
