The expectation is for a fairly large US apple crop to be harvested this fall. Washington, the US’ largest growing state, had a really good bloom at the beginning of the year. While summer got a little warm, the outlook remains good. “The crop is coming back from an off year in 2022,” says Don Roper with Honeybear Marketing. Last year, Washington produced 100 million cases, which was a decrease of 15 percent over the five-year average. “This year however, we anticipate a significant increase over last year,” he commented. The expectation is for a production volume close to 120 million cases. “In addition to good growing conditions, the increase in volume is also caused by new, high-density orchards coming into production.”
Heat and drought in the Midwest
As opposed to Washington, the Midwest had a banner production year in 2022. Michigan alone harvested approximately 30 million cases, which was nearly double the 2021 amount. “The region did a good job helping to support the US supply line last year, given that Washington’s production was so much lower compared to average,” said Roper. While a great crop year is usually followed by an off year, the Midwest is expected to hold its own due to lots of new high-density orchards coming into production throughout the Midwest “I think production may be close to 28 or 29 million cases this year in Michigan and we are seeing good production throughout the entire Midwest,” Roper said. Recently, it has been very warm and dry in the Midwest and the heat could have an impact on production numbers. While the trees are being watered, irrigation mainly serves to save the trees. “At this point, we need Mother Nature to help us out with some good rainfall.”
East Coast early freeze
The East Coast experienced a mid-spring (late April) freeze that impacted bloom in Eastern New York and down through the Hudson Valley. Last year's East Coast crop totaled 32 million bushels, but this year New York growers are expecting to harvest a little over 29 million bushels or about a 12 percent decline. "Since spring, the region has experienced good growing weather with no real issues holding fruit production back."
When adding up the projected volumes of the three growing regions, Roper expects a US apple production increase of at least 10 percent over last year. He does note that projections could still change with one third of the growing season still left.
Price deflation
As a result of last year’s short US apple crop, prices went up significantly. According to data from IRI, the average retail price in 2022 increased by 15 percent over 2021. “There was less volume to move, and retailers didn’t do as many promotions.” In 2023 however, a larger apple volume is expected to result in more price competition. “There will be more room for promotions and retailers will develop a deflation strategy to work the supply and demand curve.”
New packing facility
In recent years, Honeybear Marketing has increased their investment in apple orchards through acreage expansion and continued planting high-density orchards. To move additional volume and support the company’s organic apple segment, a new packing facility was purchased in Pateros, Washington earlier this year. “This facility offers increased packing and cold storage capabilities to support our growing organic apple programs.”
A new development for Honeybear in Michigan is the signing of a marketing agreement with Elite Packing. “We will be bringing the company’s 1.5 million cases of apples to market. They grow and pack their Michigan grown apples, but we will market them under the Honeybear brand,” finished Roper.
