Favourable growing conditions in 2014/15 will drive increased production of Japanese cherries and peaches. However, as the greying Japanese population continues to shrink and per capita fruit consumption remains stagnant, prospects for future market growth appear limited.
Japanese fruit consumption:
Since the early 1990s, Japan’s fruit imports have grown dramatically, as production has continued to contract in the face of increased import competition and an ageing, shrinking farm population.
Japan’s daily per capita fruit consumption more than doubled from 81 grams in 1960 to 169 grams in 1972. However, since its peak in 1972, consumption has been relatively stable at 140 to 160 grams per day. Compared to other developed (and even developing) countries, Japan’s per capita fruit consumption is among the lowest at 140 grams per day, almost half the level of consumption in the United States.
The Japan Fruit Association encourages consumers to eat 200 grams of fruit per day, which is roughly equivalent to one apple or two peaches or 40 cherries.
Cherries:
Since 2007/08, Japan’s total area of planted cherry trees has gradually declined due to the ongoing exit of growers without successors. Post estimates that 2014/15 planted area will remain the same as the previous year at 4,840 hectares (ha).
In 2013/14, domestic production increased slightly to 18,100 metric tonnes (MT) due to good weather conditions. For the 2014/15 season, the Japanese cherry production is expected to increase further to 19,500 MT.
Satonishiki and Benishuho are the two most popular cherry cultivars in Japan, accounting for 65 and 10 percent of total production, respectively. The Satonishiki harvest season begins in mid- to late June and is followed closely by the Benishuho season in early July.
Trade:
The United States supplies 99% of Japan’s cherry imports. In 2013/14, cherry imports decreased by nearly 30 percent, due largely to a decline in shipments from the Pacific Northwest, where production was down as a result of heavy rainfall.
For the 2014/15 season, industry sources anticipate that Japan’s imports of U.S. cherries will remain lower than previous years as bad weather during the growing season affected production in California. U.S. cherry exporters continue to face an 8.5 percent duty in the Japanese market.
Japan’s exports of fresh cherries are nil. Although domestic producers are interested in pursuing export opportunities to neighbouring Asian countries, Japanese cherries are not easily marketable overseas due to their high production and shipping costs.
Peaches and nectarines:
Japan’s peach production has been steadily declining over the last decade due to a reduction in acreage caused by the decreasing number of growers, with harvested area shrinking to 9,890 hectares (Table 8) in 2013/14. Additionally, bad weather resulted in decreased yields in 2013/14. However, the 2014/15 season has brought good weather and this, combined with a successful pollination, has helped increase peach production.
Trade:
No imports of fresh peaches and nectarines were recorded in 2013/14, as imports from practically all producing countries in the world are banned for phytosanitary reasons, except for nectarines from the United States and New Zealand (albeit with fumigation requirements).
As for exports, in 2013/14, Japan’s shipments of fresh peaches nearly recovered to pre-2011/12 levels when the Great East Japan Earthquake dealt a significant blow to Japanese peach production. Yamanashi prefecture accounts for nearly half of all of Japan’s total peach exports and has been increasing its share since 2011/12.
Japan’s peach exports are expected to increase by up to 10 percent over last year. The majority of shipments are destined for Hong Kong and Taiwan, where they are purchased as gifts by high-income consumers.
Consumption:
Domestic consumption of peaches should rebound as production levels recover, limiting upward price pressures. However, along with Japan’s overall fruit consumption, peach consumption also continues to suffer from stagnant demand.
