China’s production is forecast up 1.0 million tons to 19.0 million on higher yields following favorable growing conditions in major producing areas. Exports are projected to continue rebounding, up 68,000 tons to 400,000 on greater shipments to Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. Imports are nearly halved to 6,300 tons on lower demand for product from the EU and the United States.
EU’s production is projected to drop 144,000 tons to 2.5 million as unfavorable weather affects fruit set in major producing countries. As Russia’s ban remains in effect, exports are forecast down 89,000 tons to 328,000 on reduced output and lower demand in Belarus and Brazil. With lower exports resulting in higher available domestic supplies, imports are down slightly to 202,000 tons.
United States’ production is forecast down 89,000 tons to 665,000, driven primarily by fewer bearing acres in top-growing states Washington and Oregon. Reduced shipments to Mexico and other top markets are expected to lower exports 15,000 tons to 160,000. Imports are forecast a flat 90,000 tons on steady demand for pears from Argentina and Chile.
Argentina’s production is forecast to ease 10,000 tons to 580,000 as hail storms reduced fruit volumes and quality. Exports are expected to remain unchanged at 330,000 tons as losses to Brazil due to tighter phytosanitary rules offset gains to the EU.
Chile’s production is projected down 18,000 tons to 272,000 as unseasonably cold temperatures delayed the crop, affecting crop quality. Exports are expected to follow suit, dropping 24,000 tons to 120,000 on lower exportable supplies.
South Africa’s production is forecast to rise just 10,000 tons to 410,000 even though higher plantings have come into full production. Exports are expected to keep pace with production, increasing 5,000 tons to 210,000.
Russia’s production is expected to remain flat at 160,000 tons due to unfavorable weather. Imports are forecast to remain constant at 270,000 tons as shipments from Belarus offset product from Argentina. While the ban on EU imports continues, Russia remains the top global market despite shipments having dropped more than a third since the ban was initiated in August 2014.
