China: price stable in the first half of 2015; positive outlook for the left time of 2016
Following is the price trending for 40/500g size price in the first half of 2016:
In February, its average price is 40 yuan/jin. One shrimp is almost worth one yuan. The reason of the high price is that the demand during the Chinese Spring Festival surpasses the supply, causing the price up.
In March, the average price is 38 yuan/jin. Only the green house-farmed shrimp through winter in southern China and small amount of shrimp produced in northern China are available on market. Small market quantity leads the price in a high level.
In April, the number is about 33 yuan/jin. Some ponds began to catch the shrimp stocked in early period. The market is supplemented but big size shrimp is still in shortage.
In the beginning of May, 32 yuan/jin is the average price. Shrimp from different farming regions start to go to market and the price begins to drop. In the end of May, it drops to 28 yuan/jin. The shrimp peak season comes but big size shrimp is still short of supply. Although some regions enjoy better farming condition but still can’t meet the market demand.
In the beginning of June, the price is just 23 yuan/jin. This year’s stocking is delayed about half a month. At present, the large size shrimp stock in market is not at high level. After entering June, processing factories begins to procure shrimp, whose price is at ideal position.
Affected by disease and import from Vietnam, the price goes at low level all the way, which brings big loss to farmers, although the total production is low. But situation changes in 2016. Vietnam’s production drops because of drought while there is still a high demand in Chinese market. Farmers generally think that there would be no big fluctuations in the price this year.
Thailand: Thailand processing factory competes with Vietnam and China to scramble for raw shrimp, causing price up
In early May, the price of raw shrimp from Thailand is still at low level, but it jumps rapidly from mid-May to now. Many processing factories purchase the shrimp in large quantity to meet their order demand. Thailand suppliers expects that its shrimp production would reach 27-30 tonnes in 2016, 2-5 tonnes more than last year, which, however, still can’t meet the market demand.
In early May, the price of Thailand raw shrimp are: 145-150 THB/kg for 30/500g size; 135- 145 THB/kg for 35/500g size; 125- 130 THB/kg for 40/500g size. But, up to 11st June, these prices jump to 175- 180 THB/kg, 170-175 THB/kg, 165- 170 THB/kg. The authorities in Thailand predicted that the situation of high demand towards Thailand shrimp would last by the end of July or mid-August, during which the orders in processing factories would almost be finished.
Vietnam: continuous drought damages the operation of processing factories
In 2016, lasting drought and disease bring bid damage to its shrimp farming. According to the news from Vietnam, the drought and seawater backflow damages the production of processing factories and some face the risk of bankruptcy. About 11, 000 hectares of ponds are affected and there is no improvement for the bad situation up to now.
Ecuador: Chinese buyers are not reluctant to buy its shrimp with high price
Chinese demand has already become the big factor that leads the price change of Ecuador shrimp. Although there is a little slip in its price in recent times but some industry insiders believe that the price will revive in no time because of the high demand in China. One exporter from Ecuador said that there isn’t enough shrimp in Ecuador so that the price will rise again within one month. According to source, Ecuador will sign free trade treaty with EU, which will affect the stable supply of Ecuador shrimp into China.
Ecuador exporters have already shirt its target market from America to Asia. As a result, Asian market would be a main driving force for Ecuador shrimp exporting.
India: shrimp price might back to the high level in 2013
Tamil Nadu produces about 20% shrimp of India, but its production begins to drop because of hot weather and disease break, and it’s difficult to cultivate big size shrimp now there. The shrimp fry situation is also not positive. Both the disease-resistance ability and growth rate of SPF shrimp fry don’t meet farmers’ expectation. To lower the risk, most of the farmers choose to catch the shrimp in advance, which brings a large quantity of small size shrimp to market.
As the production drops in Vietnam because of the drought, Chinese buyers shift to India. Meanwhile, there is a high demand of shrimp in international market, so the price of India shrimp might back to the high level in 2013.
America and EU: wait and see Chinese farming situation
The farming situation of China in second half of 2016 will directly affect the market in America and EU. Now they are carefully watching the farming situation in China.
The shrimp market price in 2016 is lower than that in 2015. Chinese farming situation will impose impact on international shrimp price trending. If it’s improve a lot, it will affect the shrimp export of Vietnam, India and South America, who will look for new buyers.
